Being Human in a Chaotic World

 

Here’s a new acronym for you. BANI. It stands for Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible. These four words form a framework that’s meant to describe the current state of the world.

Futurist Jamais Cascio created the BANI framework as a way of dealing with an increasingly chaotic environment — a confusing world that leaves us with the sense that things are spinning out of control. Cascio’s goal was to uncover an understanding of why we’re getting unexpected outcomes, and how the choices we face along the way can lead us in very different directions.

“We are in an age of chaos, an era that intensely, almost violently, rejects structure. It isn’t simple instability, it’s a reality that seems to actively resist efforts to understand what the hell is going on.” – Jamais Cascio

So, is BANI just the latest piece of catchy business jargon? Or is it a vital framework for helping us navigate the future? 

Let’s explore. First, we’ll dig into the BANI framework before moving on to how it could affect the work of the board.

From VUCA to BANI

As a futurist with a background in history, political science, and anthropology, Jamais Cascio is an expert at spotting patterns that repeat across history. A few years ago, he started to notice that patterns weren’t repeating as expected. With events playing out in unfamiliar ways, he recognized that the world had shifted to a different level of disruption.

The acronym VUCA — volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity — had been coined in the 1980’s to capture the kinds of disruptions that were happening more often at the time. But by 2018 Cascio felt that VUCA no longer captured disruptions to the norm, it had become the norm.

So he created BANI — brittle, anxious, non-linear, and incomprehensible. He felt that these four concepts provided a better language for how the world seemed to be falling apart. He called it “a taxonomy of chaos.”

The shift from VUCA to BANI reflects three overriding developments. First, the dramatic acceleration in the speed of change. Second, the complete interconnectedness of our global systems. Third, and perhaps most significant, the human element — the intense emotional impact of chaos on our sense of well-being.

BANI describes a world that is easily damaged, stress-inducing, unpredictable, and hard to understand. Let’s dig into each of the four components.

Brittle — sudden, surprising, and hard to ignore.

When something is brittle, it doesn’t bend, it breaks. Brittle systems seem solid and strong. They appear to be working well, then suddenly collapse under stress. Often the breaking point comes as a surprise, because the weakness was hidden or the stress unexpected.

Brittle systems have no flexibility or capacity to absorb shock. They’re designed for maximum efficiency but lack resilience. If you’re looking for an example, think of the global supply chain that all but collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Anxious — confusing, deceptive, and emotionally painful.

Anxiety is now a pervasive condition. The constant spate of unexpected, disruptive events has left us in permanent anticipation of the next crisis. Systems that trigger anxiety pose dilemmas without useful solutions or involve choices with negative outcomes. They make trust difficult or impossible.

One example of an anxiety-creating system is the media, especially social media. Media shapes our collective anxiety with a constant stream of negative news and language that promotes uncertainty. Time spent on our social media feeds often leaves us feeling stressed and sad. 

Non-linear — disproportionate, surprising, and counter-intuitive.

Non-linearity implies that cause-and-effect is unpredictable. In non-linear systems, input and output are disproportionate, disrupting what we expect to see as the result of our decisions. Small actions have huge impacts, large efforts yield little or no results, and bad decisions can spiral out of control.

Climate change is an example of non-linearity. Carbon emitted on one side of the world returns as extreme weather on the other. Seasons are disordered. There’s a disconnect between the speed at which the situation is worsening and the speed at which decision-makers are addressing it. 

Incomprehensible — ridiculous, senseless, even unthinkable.

When something is incomprehensible, its details are thoroughly opaque, with difficult or incomplete explanations. The volume of information, the speed of change, and the complexity of events make it hard to understand the situation. More information only makes us feel overwhelmed.

For example, think about the decision-making of machine learning systems. It’s difficult, if not impossible, for us to understand how a deep learning system reaches its conclusions. Even sophisticated AI tools can make strange errors that defy explanation.

Adapting to a BANI World

The future keeps coming — whether we’re ready for it or not.

BANI is a way of seeing the world, but it doesn’t reveal solutions. The system breaks in the BANI framework don’t actually have solutions. The best we can hope for is a response or an adaptation.

What would appropriate responses or adaptations look like?

Resilience: The response to brittleness is resilience. It involves being prepared for the unexpected, having backup plans in place, creating flexible structures and processes, and building capacity to withstand shock. Diversity is a key element of resilience, so not everyone thinks or acts the same way in the face of a challenge.

Empathy: To respond to anxiety, we need empathy and trust. Too much anxiety can lead to analysis paralysis, risk aversion, and failure to act in a timely manner. Organizations need to identify where excessive anxiety is coming from, and foster safety and well-being at work. Leadership development can help ensure people have the mental and psychological tools to handle unexpected change.

Improvisation: A response to non-linearity requires adaptability, open-mindedness, and agility. We need to be constantly learning new things, look ahead and scan situations, maintain acute awareness of self and others, and be prepared to question our own beliefs.

Intuition: An incomprehensible world requires us to look inwards, trusting our gut feelings as much as our rational thinking. We need to be willing to admit that we don’t have all the answers and to ask others for help. The challenges we face require us to experiment with change management, learn from others, and make decisions with less than perfect information.

BANI in the Boardroom

In a BANI world, the organizations most likely to thrive are those that embrace a human-centred approach, prioritizing empathy, listening skills, and trust. They’re agile, adaptable, and resilient, with a culture of learning and collaboration, full of people who are open-minded, diverse, and self-aware.

How do these responses play out in the boardroom? Directors & Boards recently posted the article Navigating BANI Challenges: An Action Plan for Boards, which addresses exactly that. The authors suggest that boards consider the following:

1. Reshaping the board. The board’s role is more than just oversight; it’s actively engaged in shaping the organization’s future. Board composition includes cognitive diversity and different perspectives. Directors ensure management is future focused by asking the right questions in the right way. Oversight and compliance are delegated to committees, freeing up the board to spend time on people, strategy, and risk.
2. Updating the CEO profile. When selecting a CEO, the board prioritizes the ability to navigate constant change coupled with technological fluency. The modern CEO excels in stakeholder management, balancing the demands of owners, funders, employees, customers and regulators. They balance optimism and realism, patience and urgency, performance and purpose.
3. Reimagining the C-Suite. What’s needed isn’t a collection of siloed experts but a collaborative, cross-functional team. The ability to drive innovation requires a cross-pollination of ideas. Rapid experimentation is key; data-driven decision-making is the norm. Emotional intelligence is just as important, so that the leadership team can ensure the rapid pace of change doesn’t result in burnout.
4. Approaching Performance Metrics Holistically. Traditional financial metrics aren’t sufficient. A holistic approach that focuses on long-term value rather than short-term results is required. Flexible KPIs that can evolve over time are crucial.
5. Building Trust. Stakeholder communication is more than just disclosure. It explains the rationale behind decisions, not just the outcomes. Transparent course corrections — admitting mistakes, explaining pivots, and sharing evolving risk landscapes — build trust and credibility. Risk assessment considers not just likelihood and severity but also the speed at which risks can materialize and the potential to spread across systems.

Embrace the Human Element

Futurist Jamais Cascio writes that, when asked what can be done to withstand BANI challenges, he always comes back to human elements, encouraging people to focus on resilience, empathy, improvisation, and intuition.

At the individual level, that leads to a few kernels of advice.

• Don’t wait until you’re in a crisis to come up with a crisis plan. Build up your capacity to withstand sudden shocks.
• Be kind to yourself and others. Stop doomscrolling. Avoid communication that increases fear, anger, and mistrust.
• When conditions aren’t normal, continuing to do what you’ve always done can be disastrous. Work on being able to adapt quickly to the unexpected.
• Don’t ignore your gut feelings. Research suggests that, long before our rational brain consciously recognizes a problem, our emotional brain gives us a warning.

Your takeaways:

• The BANI framework describes a chaotic word that is brittle, anxious, non-linear, and incomprehensible.
• BANI reflects the dizzying speed of change, the sheer interconnectedness of our systems, and the intense emotional impact of the chaotic world we live in.
• To thrive in a BANI world, the board should be actively engaged in shaping the organization’s future, spending more time on strategy, risk, and people. BANI also influences who the board should select as CEO, how to work with the executive team, what KPIs are appropriate, and how to engage with stakeholders.
• As an individual director trying to adapt to the BANI world, remember that it’s all about embracing the human element — resilience, empathy, improvisation, and intuition.

Resources:

• Human Responses to a BANI World. Jamais Cascio. Medium. October 2022.
• Navigating BANI Challenges: An Action Plan for Boards. Raj Gupta, Elena Lytkina Botelho and Mukul Pandya. Directors & Boards. April 2025.
• BANI World: What is it and Why We Need it? Stefan F. Dieffenbacher. Digital Leadership. September 2023.
• Navigating Complexity: How Leaders Can Thrive in a BANI World. Wilma D. Mohapatra. LinkedIn. August 2024.
• BANI: What is it and how can it help us? Molly Shrimpton. Impact. January 2024.
• Navigating a BANI World: Strategies for Future Leadership. Mark Hope. Asymmetric Marketing. October 2024.

The Savvy Director’s 200th post.

Around the time that Jamais Cascio was coming up with the BANI framework, DirectorPrep published its first Savvy Director blog post. Since then, there have been 199 more.

That’s right, we’re celebrating the 200th edition of The Savvy Director!

Some of you have been with us since the beginning. Together with DirectorPrep co-founders Alice Sayant and Dave Jaworski. I’d like to thank you for your interest, support, and engagement. We hope you continue to find value in our Sunday morning musings.

Thank you.

Scott

Scott Baldwin is a certified corporate director (ICD.D) and co-founder of DirectorPrep.com – an online membership with practical tools for board directors who choose a growth mindset.

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